Peninsular BN Seats in GE14: Urban vs Rural & Malay Votes

Sources: Politweet, Wikipedia, Undi.info

Seats Lost in Peninsular Malaysia by Barisan Nasional in GE14

Here I was particularly interested in the types of seats which rejected BN in Peninsular Malaysia in GE14, and went over either to PH or PAS. As you can see these swing seats were a majority rural seats alongside many semi-urban (or suburban) seats. This is as classified by Politweet based upon calculations of urban development density in constituencies (methodology here). Their full list from GE13 is available here.

Rural/semi-urban remain very broad categories to understand such constituencies, and don't allow for the diversities in their economies, level and type of development and their constituents, but what it does show is that the process of political competition in these seats is alive and well, and that rural politics was important in the election. It will also be important to understand why other rural Malay seats stayed with BN. (See the next table).

Seats Held in Peninsular Malaysia by Barisan Nasional in GE14

Three cornered fights between UMNO/PPBM/PKR/PAS/AMANAH

I put this together to see the kind of Peninsula seats controlled by BN post-GE14. Surprise surprise they're heavily rural and heavily Malay. But I was also wondering about the strength of BN in these seats and how secure their position is.

All but three of the seats contested by UMNO were three cornered races between UMNO, PAS and PPBM/PKR/AMANAH and with only a few exceptions UMNO gained fewer votes than the other Malay parties challenging it combined, showing strong tendencies in those constituencies towards PAS or PH.

In only but a few seats did UMNO manage to maintain good majorities and gain more votes than competing Malay parties, particularly Jeli (Kelantan) Lenggong, Bagan Datuk (Perak), Pekan (Pahang), Masjid Tanah (Malacca) Mersing, Tenggara (Johor). In very few seats was UMNO able to increase its majority and take more votes than other Malay parties combined. Only in Jeli (Kelantan), Lenggong, Bagan Datuk (Perak) and Rompin (Pahang). This may in the end be the result of local issues and local candidates.

In those seats where UMNO increased its majority but still had less combined votes than other Malay political parties, you perhaps see competitive voting between UMNO vs. PAS vs. PH, as a three way split. In seats where UMNO shed many votes but still won the seats due to the votes taken by PH and PAS you can perhaps see a split in an anti-BN/anti-UMNO vote going to PH or PAS.

Many UMNO seats don't have secure majorities and have seen a majority of votes going to non-UMNO parties. This seems to show a strong general trend even within these rural Malay constituencies towards non-UMNO parties. Much will depend in GE15 on redelineation, how UMNO reforms itself, PAS's relationship with PH and PH's relationship with rural Malays. Nevertheless its suggests that what is typically thought of as UMNO's base is less secure and loyal and more competititve than is usually assumed.

This also marks a major difference between GE13 and GE14, where UMNO was able to increase their support from Malay voters (4% in rural seats, and 1% in urban and semi-urban seats) and didn't see a signficant swing in youth votes against it. On this basis UMNO was able to gain seats and to regain the state governments of Kedah and Perak. It can be argued that GE14 has been part of a longer term trend of political change within these rural Malay seats, which has seen UMNO's majorities reduced and become less secure, but what happened then in these Malay between GE13 and GE14 will be an important question to answer.