Peninsular BN Seats in GE14: Urban vs Rural & Malay Votes
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Peninsular BN Seats in GE14: Urban vs Rural & Malay Votes

Peninsular BN Seats in GE14: Urban vs Rural & Malay Votes

Sources: Politweet, Wikipedia,

Seats Lost in Peninsular Malaysia by Barisan Nasional in GE14

Here I was particularly interested in the types of seats which rejected BN in Peninsular Malaysia in GE14, and went over either to PH or PAS. As you can see these swing seats were a majority rural seats alongside many semi-urban (or suburban) seats. This is as classified by Politweet based upon calculations of urban development density in constituencies (methodology here). Their full list from GE13 is available here.

Rural/semi-urban remain very broad categories to understand such constituencies, and don't allow for the diversities in their economies, level and type of development and their constituents, but what it does show is that the process of political competition in these seats is alive and well, and that rural politics was important in the election. It will also be important to understand why other rural Malay seats stayed with BN. (See the next table).

Type Ethnic Majority Winning Party
Perlis Kangar Semi-urban Malay PKR
Kedah Langkawi Rural Malay PPBM
Kedah Jerlun Rural Malay PPBM
Kedah Kubang Pasu Semi-urban Malay PPBM
Kedah Pendang Rural Malay PAS
Kedah Jerai Rural Malay PAS
Kedah Sik Rural Malay PAS
Kedah Merbok Semi-urban Malay PKR
Kedah Kulim-Bandar Baharu Semi-urban Malay PKR
Terengganu Setiu Rural Malay PAS
Terengganu Kemaman Semi-urban Malay PAS
Penang Balik Pulau Rural Malay PKR
Perak Tambun Semi-urban Malay PPBM
Perak Teluk Intan Semi-urban Mixed DAP
Perak Tanjong Malim Rural Malay PKR
Pahang Bentong Rural Mixed DAP
Selangor Sungai Besar Rural Malay PPBM
Selangor Hulu Selangor Semi-urban Malay PKR
Selangor Kuala Selangor Rural Malay AMANAH
WP KL Setiawangsa Urban Malay PKR
WP KL Titiwangsa Urban Malay PPBM
Negeri Sembilan Kuala Pilah Semi-urban Malay PPBM
Negeri Sembilan Tampin Rural Malay AMANAH
Melaka Alor Gajah Rural Malay PPBM
Melaka Tangga Batu Semi-urban Malay PKR
Johor Segamat Rural Mixed PKR
Johor Sekijang Rural Malay PKR
Johor Labis Rural Mixed DAP
Johor Pagoh Rural Malay PPBM
Johor Ledang Rural Malay PKR
Johor Muar Rural Malay PPBM
Johor Sri Gading Rural Malay PPBM
Johor Simpang Renggam Rural Malay PPBM
Johor Tebrau Semi-urban Mixed PKR
Johor Pasir Gudang Semi-urban Mixed PKR
Johor Johor Bahru Urban Malay PKR
Johor Pulai Urban Mixed AMANAH
Johor Tanjung Piai Rural Malay PPBM

Seats Held in Peninsular Malaysia by Barisan Nasional in GE14

Type Ethnic Majority BN's Majority Three-cornered fights where BN had less than 50% of vote*
Perlis Padang Besar Rural Malay ↓ 1,438 Yes
Perlis Arau Rural Malay ↑ 4,856 Yes
Kedah Padang Terap Rural Malay ↓ 1,099 Yes
Kedah Baling Rural Malay ↓ 1,074 Yes
Kelantan Ketereh Rural Malay ↑ 4,626 Yes
Kelantan Tanah Merah Rural Malay ↓ 2,929 Yes
Kelantan Machang Rural Malay ↑ 2,824 Yes
Kelantan Jeli Rural Malay ↑ 6,647 No
Kelantan Gua Musang Rural Malay ↓ 3,913 Yes
Terengganu Besut Semi-urban Malay ↓ 4,599 Yes
Terengganu Hulu Terengganu Rural Malay ↓ 2,868 Yes
Penang Kepala Batas Rural Malay ↑ 4,736 Yes
Penang Tasek Gelugor Rural Malay ↓ 81 Yes
Perak Gerik Rural Malay ↓ 5,528 Yes
Perak Lenggong Rural Malay ↑ 5,773 No
Perak Larut Rural Malay ↓ 4,486 Yes
Perak Bagan Serai Rural Malay ↓ 172 Yes
Perak Bukit Gantang Rural Malay Gain from PAS Yes
Perak Padang Rengas Rural Malay ↑ 2,548 Yes
Perak Kuala Kangsar Semi-urban Malay ↓ 731 Yes
Perak Parit Rural Malay ↑ 6,320 Yes
Perak Tapah Rural Mixed ↓ 614 MIC
Perak Pasir Salak Rural Malay ↑ 7,712 Yes
Perak Bagan Datuk Rural Malay ↑ 5,073 No
Pahang Cameron Highlands Rural Mixed ↑ 597 MIC
Pahang Lipis Rural Malay ↑ 6,569 Yes
Pahang Jerantut Rural Malay ↑ 5,908 Yes
Pahang Paya Besar Rural Malay ↓ 5,742 Yes
Pahang Pekan Rural Malay ↓ 24,859 No
Pahang Maran Rural Malay ↓ 3,763 Yes
Pahang Kuala Krau Rural Malay ↓ 2,876 Yes
Pahang Bera Rural Malay ↑ 2,311 Yes
Pahang Rompin Rural Malay ↑ 11,395 No
Selangor Sabak Bernam Rural Malay ↓ 1,674 Yes
Selangor Tanjong Karang Rural Malay ↓ 1,970 Yes
WP Putrajaya Putrajaya Urban Malay ↓ 3,372 Yes
Negeri Sembilan Jelebu Rural Malay ↓ 2,045 Yes
Negeri Sembilan Jempol Rural Malay ↓ 1,631 Yes
Negeri Sembilan Rembau Semi-urban Malay ↓ 4,364 Yes
Malacca Masjid Tanah Rural Malay ↓ 8,159 No
Malacca Jasin Rural Malay ↓ 219 Yes
Johor Parit Sulong Rural Malay ↓ 6,314 Yes
Johor Ayer Hitam Rural Malay ↓ 303 MCA
Johor Sembrong Rural Malay ↓ 6,662 -
Johor Mersing Rural Malay ↓ 8,459 No
Johor Tenggara Rural Malay ↓ 5,933 No
Johor Kota Tinggi Rural Malay ↓ 14,621 -
Johor Pengerang Rural Malay ↓ 11,417 -
Johor Pontian Rural Malay ↓ 833 Yes
Three cornered fights between UMNO/PPBM/PKR/PAS/AMANAH

I put this together to see the kind of Peninsula seats controlled by BN post-GE14. Surprise surprise they're heavily rural and heavily Malay. But I was also wondering about the strength of BN in these seats and how secure their position is.

All but three of the seats contested by UMNO were three cornered races between UMNO, PAS and PPBM/PKR/AMANAH and with only a few exceptions UMNO gained fewer votes than the other Malay parties challenging it combined, showing strong tendencies in those constituencies towards PAS or PH.

In only but a few seats did UMNO manage to maintain good majorities and gain more votes than competing Malay parties, particularly Jeli (Kelantan) Lenggong, Bagan Datuk (Perak), Pekan (Pahang), Masjid Tanah (Malacca) Mersing, Tenggara (Johor). In very few seats was UMNO able to increase its majority and take more votes than other Malay parties combined. Only in Jeli (Kelantan), Lenggong, Bagan Datuk (Perak) and Rompin (Pahang). This may in the end be the result of local issues and local candidates.

In those seats where UMNO increased its majority but still had less combined votes than other Malay political parties, you perhaps see competitive voting between UMNO vs. PAS vs. PH, as a three way split. In seats where UMNO shed many votes but still won the seats due to the votes taken by PH and PAS you can perhaps see a split in an anti-BN/anti-UMNO vote going to PH or PAS.

Many UMNO seats don't have secure majorities and have seen a majority of votes going to non-UMNO parties. This seems to show a strong general trend even within these rural Malay constituencies towards non-UMNO parties. Much will depend in GE15 on redelineation, how UMNO reforms itself, PAS's relationship with PH and PH's relationship with rural Malays. Nevertheless its suggests that what is typically thought of as UMNO's base is less secure and loyal and more competititve than is usually assumed.

This also marks a major difference between GE13 and GE14, where UMNO was able to increase their support from Malay voters (4% in rural seats, and 1% in urban and semi-urban seats) and didn't see a signficant swing in youth votes against it. On this basis UMNO was able to gain seats and to regain the state governments of Kedah and Perak. It can be argued that GE14 has been part of a longer term trend of political change within these rural Malay seats, which has seen UMNO's majorities reduced and become less secure, but what happened then in these Malay between GE13 and GE14 will be an important question to answer.